A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
