Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
